Red Cargo Train vs Millennium Falcon

[mac41099]

I had ordered 2 Millennium Falcons during TRUs buy 2 get 1 free sale. They shipped me 2 Red Cargo Trains by mistake. I see the value of the train is higher than the MF. I'm not a fan of Lego City, but was buying the MF to sell later for a profit.

However, now that I have the trains, I'm wondering which set would have the highest resale value potential. Anyone have more knowledge on trains and Lego City? Should I keep the Red Cargo Trains or return for MF? Any guesses on when they'll retire? With the sale, I paid $83 for each before taxes.

Thanks

[Legobrandon]

Didn't you technically get a great deal since the MSRP of the Cargo Train is $159 and the Falcon is $139?

[mac41099]

I did but I got the MF to sell after retirement. However if the Cargo Train has more long term potential, I'll keep them.

[SpaceNinjaDino]

Tough call. LEGO keeps making MF every few years (this is the 4th one that is large), so I don't know how well that set will do in the long run. The good trains always do well in the aftermarket. I think I have 2 Red Cargos and 1 MF for resell. $83 is a really good cost basis and almost no risk of losing money either way.

I guess your question comes down to which one will retire first if you're looking for the quickest flip. Both were released in 2011. Red Cargo Train is TRU exclusive in USA. When there is no large MF on the market, this 7965 will do well. Actually 7190 is still selling for $200+.

With Red Cargo's higher MSRP, you can already get $160 on eBay.

[mac41099]

Good point. Might be best to hang onto the Cargo Trains.

[ezra]

Keep the trains.

[Marcus70]

The red cargo might not be retired for a while. Looking at four main trains sets the yellow cargo train, passenger train and Marsek Train are all older trains, than the red cargo, currently in production.

[Luciant]

Trains ALWAYS do well in after market. MF are starting to stick around their MSRP except Big Daddy.

[Brickmythic]

both will do well in the aftermarket. I say keep the Red Cargo trains! that is a pretty good deal. unless you are bent on picking up some extra falcons.

When this Falcon retires it will do well because it includes virtually the entire OT cast in minifigures except for the droids which are extremely easy to find. also notice the lack of hording

The MF is pretty sturdy and has playability for kids. while it looks sorta wonky it isnt that bad on display if you cant afford a $2,000+ UCS MF or have the time to bricklink a $500-600 MF.
parents collectors and kids will reach for this falcon. so in principle, prices of UCS Falcon will drive the aftermarket eol price of the current MF up to pretty ridiculous levels.

both are easy $300 ish sets within a year or so from eol, imo. which isn't bad at all!

nice score!

[SpaceNinjaDino]

My local TRU has now raised the price of Red Cargo Train to $199.99 now! Geez.

[mac41099]

Sounds like it might be a while before the Red Cargo Train would retire so I'm thinking of selling them now at $160 (since I paid $87 with tax) and then using the cash to buy some Fire Brigades. After all fees and purchase prices, it would work out to paying around $110 each for FB. I still have a couple other MF so no need to get those instead.

What do you think of the thought of selling Cargo Trains now to buy Fire Brigades? All signs point to FB retiring in the next couple months.

[turtle1173]

All signs pointed to them retiring last year also but here we are. I do hope they retire this year but we are in uncharted territory with what is normally standard.

[Luciant]

If I were to Invest in multiple Modulars, I would Invest in Grand Emporium or Pet Shop over Fire Brigade. FB just isn't as 'popular' as the other modulars IMO.

[natelite]

FB is the exception and maybe even GE and PS. TLC violated the 2yr production rule with 6212 x-wing and increasingly seems to include other sets now especially when they belong to a popular series like the creator building sets. TLC must have seen the after markets for CC and GG. Note that DS also is in the 5th year.

i wouldn't estimate any 2yr production rule with the creator series unless sales have been poor. i would stick to action series stuff like ninjago spinners, dino, monster fighters. those seem to retire after a year.

Also plenty of folks know about the after markets especially for SW sets to the point where the after markets no longer perform as they did in the past. just check out some of the sets on BL. they are still at MSRP or slightly above. not 2-3x.

having money tied up for 5 years only to get marginal return is not my idea of investing. having my money doubled in 6 months is the right investment. :) i would just get plenty of ninjago spinners and get ready for a busy 2 months running up to christmas.

lego investing is getting to be a risky business now. getting the hot toys for christmas will ensure you get your money back but the downside is if it turns cold, then you are stuck with inventory you can't get rid of. on the other hand, the other strategy of holding and selling in 5 yrs no longer work given that everyone is also stocking up b4 the end of line but also TLC is producing the popular sets longer than the 2yr rule.

[slacker]

I agree with natelite. I would keep the train. Emerald night is double what it sold for in one year. MF will be remade every 5 years. I'm sure the current MF brought lower prices on the first two generations.

[Luciant]

I agree with Nate as well. When I got back into Lego, I thought buy the sets on clearance, hold them for a while then resell to get my money back and pay for others... but I'm realizing now, I'm having to hold on and store lots of sets that aren't selling for more than MSRP...which after taxes and fees basically brings the discount you got buying it to almost nothing. I think Nate is right about targeting the short-lived sets that are under-produced, and also the sets you think are going to be popular for a long time (certain SW sets, Creator houses, etc.) Be careful with those these days as Lego is offsetting the secondary market by keeping the big-time sets longer: Modulars, DS, SSD, etc. I don't think the return on investment is going to be as great as everyone hopes for.