If Lego closed its doors . . .

[Zithy]

So if Lego closed its doors--say bankruptcy for example--what do you think would happen to the value of Lego in all its forms--sealed/unsealed sets & bricks?

1) Value would rise

2) Value would drop

Dramatically in either direction? Long term?

Would you still seek out sets and build/collect? Or would you move on to something else?

I don't really see Mega Blox or some other inferior company replacing Lego, but I think part of collecting is to get the new sets each year and that would suffer for many people's attention. So if many dropped out of being an AFOL, demand could drop significantly as well.

Lastly, do you ever envision Lego going bust and quitting?

Just some random thoughts. Love you hear your responses!

[Asterios]

Its hard to say since the value of LEGO is kept high because of the influx of new products and such and if they closed it would kill the market for builders and such and only retain some value for collectors, but lets be realistic, its the builders who keep values up, not collectors (except for licensed themes).

[sadowsk1]

I think if Lego stopped producing the value of the goods would go up. It's not as though they go bad.

[brickz]

If Lego closed its doors, chances are the economy is not doing too well. People won't buy as much "items" that they don't need. They'll buy stuff like food first before toy. So this means Lego prices will drop to almost nothing.

[Zithy]

I could only imagine the demise of Lego being the result of a bad economy that goes on for a long while. But for the question in this thread, toss the economy out of the equation. Just say that Lego made bad decisions for a while--opened too many stores too soon and leveraged themselves too thin, or suddenly overpaid for licensing and had a few release go bust(Ben 10?). Somehow, anyhow, they closed their doors but the economy is not a factor.

Still the same answer?

[Mantisking]

So if Lego closed its doors--say bankruptcy for example--what do you think would happen to the value of Lego in all its forms--sealed/unsealed sets & bricks?

1) Value would rise

2) Value would drop

Dramatically in either direction? Long term?

Prices would rise. Value is something that is determined by the user, not the market.

Would you still seek out sets and build/collect? Or would you move on to something else?

I'm not sure.

I don't really see Mega Blox or some other inferior company replacing Lego, but I think part of collecting is to get the new sets each year and that would suffer for many people's attention. So if many dropped out of being an AFOL, demand could drop significantly as well.

While demand might drop if people walk away from the hobby, supply is still restricted so prices would still rise.

Lastly, do you ever envision Lego going bust and quitting?

Not unless they make some colossal mistakes.

Just some random thoughts. Love you hear your responses!

Interesting thoughts. :D

[Asterios]

The problem is once the market dried up people would hold onto their LEGO or do a massive sell off since the hobby is no longer supported, sealed collector sets like HP and SW and unsealed sets of same will go up while the basic brick and pieces will not.

[legitimatealex]

I'd be terribly sad, first of all. Secondly it wouldn't matter if they went bankrupt someone would definitely buy them out. This brand is too valuable and recognizable to die.

[Mantisking]

The problem is once the market dried up people would hold onto their LEGO or do a massive sell off since the hobby is no longer supported, sealed collector sets like HP and SW and unsealed sets of same will go up while the basic brick and pieces will not.

Once again -- if supply goes down, prices go up. It's basic economics.

I'd be terribly sad, first of all.

Good point.

Secondly it wouldn't matter if they went bankrupt someone would definitely buy them out. This brand is too valuable and recognizable to die.

True. Could you see Megablocks running the company? That'd be crazy.

[Asterios]

The problem is once the market dried up people would hold onto their LEGO or do a massive sell off since the hobby is no longer supported, sealed collector sets like HP and SW and unsealed sets of same will go up while the basic brick and pieces will not.

Once again -- if supply goes down, prices go up. It's basic economics.

That is true, but remember this LEGO demand is increased by the builders, not collectors, what do you think builders will do if they can no longer get LEGO? Quit is the obvious choice, so now you'll have untold thousands of builders depleteing their inventory which will be picked up by die hard builders, pretty soon after this goes on for a few years not many builders will be left, only the collectible sets will be worth money and loose stuff will no longer have its appeal, before eBay (then BrickLink) came around people could buy LEGO sets and pieces for pennies on the dollar, you could find $50 sets for a buck or two and this was common, but then online sales came around which caused people to be able to find cheap LEGO all around, but then they shysters, and the scalpers came around and drove prices up, but you remove the shysters and scalpers with no new product, they vanish, and with them gone LEGO will come down to normal Levels, and basic sets and parts will be cheap once again.

[tired]

If Lego closed its doors, what would happen...

Unrealistic thoughts:

All the AFOLs and maybe teen builders will chip in a small investment and revive the company. So it would be a builder-owned company. Then Blacktron will truly return to settle some unfinished business with Classic Space.

We'll storm Legoland in desperation of acquiring the last bits of Lego?

Tourism to Denmark would drop 25%? LOL

Realistic Thoughts:

The price of Lego would high for a decade max and slowing wane as us builders die off. Then the only building blocks children would know of is MegaBloks, MegaBloks, MEGABLOKS. Unless MegaBloks dies first.

[Senator]

If Lego closed its doors, prices will go up like mad and there wouldn't be any other good toys left. :( The substitute MegaBloks is definately a no for me.

[possum]

If LEGO closed their doors, I'd open a place where people could come see natelite & asterios fight like children. Intermission between rounds would feature economics taught by someone who has no idea what they're talking about. Then I'd use the profits from tickets & concessions to travel the world.

[BobaFett2]

Prices would go up. Being one of the most popular toy brands, there are many children who would lose this. Parents who remembered playing with LEGO would probably get them old sets when they could. The price on bricklink would go up, since the LEGO would become "limited". And the world would end...for me...

[SpaceNinjaDino]

Then Blacktron will truly return to settle some unfinished business with Classic Space.

Don't make me wish bad things for LEGO! I totally miss Blacktron I. I can't believe they only had a 12-18 month run. I'm so happy my parents bought me all those sets. (I can't really stand Blacktron II ... they are such posers.)

[BrickWild]

If TLG died, then some people would be in real trouble! But I could manage!