meyerc13 wrote:Heck, even at Target LEGO rarely makes it to 50% because people snap everything up for a 30% or less discount. Other than polybags, about the only sets I've seen make it to 50% at Target were the Space Police Galactic Enforcer sets last year, which I happily snapped up at that price. None of those lasted beyond 50%.
in the past, i used to wait until 75% for any clearance sets at target but from last year i noticed most sets were gone by 50%. just look at the recent target online clearance. most sets were gone on day 1 it was discovered (by gabriellee), partly thanks to the clowns who posted on SD.
i think the bad economy coupled with the lego renaissance have led many people to hoard lego sets. in fact, i'm quite certain we're entering a lego bubble. think about it for a minute - it's a classic bubble just like the black tulip bubble. as long as the set stays an investment (i.e. MISB) and not consumed (i.e. is not opened), it holds its value. once it is opened, it dropped to practically worthless (defined as 50% or lower than the MISB price). the black tulip bulb was the same thing. as long as it wasn't planted, it's highly valuable. once it was planted it loses it's entire value. the only thing left for this bubble is if banks are willing to take mint lego sets as collateral.
then we would start having crazy folks leveraging up to the wazoo!
just think about it - $800+ for a cafe corner? seriously? all the parts can be sourced from PaB, no unique mfs, why is it worth $800 or $1k mint? of the folks who are buying, how many are truly end users (i.e. opening and building the sets)? we may have some millionaires or billionaires who have far better thing to do than spend time hunting down the parts but not many others can afford a $800 set.
btw, if you have been following the wine market, it's the same thing. plenty of french wines are now being bought up in asia it's insane. there's even a bank credit facility for buying up crates of these wines. $10k or even $1m for a bottle? are they crazy? ultimately those wine end up in the toilet as barf or pee anyway. and how many rich folks can truly bring themselves to drink $1m of 750ml wine anyway? it's insane. think about this - how many common folk can tell the difference between a $10 bottle vs a $10k or $1m bottle? heck, i can't even tell the diff between a cheap moet chandon champagne vs a moet dom perignon champagne. and those don't even run at $10k a piece.
as for lego sets, i would recommend to buy only sets you truly want. that way, when the bubble bursts, you won't be stuck with unwanted sets and no money. seriously, don't buy sets for the sake of selling it. i have even stopped giving advise on what set to buy because it is only inflating the bubble further.
don't be greedy and speculate on how much EN can rise to - just sell it when it's higher than what you would pay for it.
