Lego Duds

[Neo]

Wrt to entire sets. I agree that Atlantis has flopped.

Prince of Persia has some interesting architectural pieces but its also has flopped since bricklink negates the need for the set.

Fantasy space theme sets and racer sets tend to use generic and universally available parts. In addition, Lego tends to have a current product line that addresses both types on sale at any given moment. What separates the space sets with the racer sets is there seems to be a large group of space theme AFOL which can help aftermarket reseller move his stock. However, without new unique parts to re-invigorate interest in complete space theme sets - the potential for appreciation is small.


Movies like Toy Story, Cars, Indiana Jones, and POTC have run their course and donot have a persistent mass media presence to reinforce their story line to young buyers like the comic book franchise of Batman or even Spongebob Square pants . - so their market appeal and demand weakens over time. The problem with Movie themes - is the lack of a demand to make lego movies ( Remember Lego's Studio?) If the Lego Studio market was very strong - it would definitely help create demand for Lego Movie theme sets.

TMNT cartoon franchise has a cable tv mass media presences similar to Spongebob Squarepants - so I suspect that it will have a mild by sustainable interest albeit not to AFOLs so its sustained lego theme line won't translate to a *good* investment.

While there is no details on time frame of the mass media presence for the Lone Ranger Movie, I think there is enough Western and steampunk theme AFOLs that the Long Ranger Lego line will do well. For it to do really good - the Long Ranger needs to be franchised into either a comic book, cartoon series, or multiple movies spanning atleast 10 years. Lone Ranger is the traditional western route - a steampunk route would be something like a *Wild Wild West* Lego line and cable TV cartoon series to help promote a story line.

[ss7man]

I'm going to throw in a surprise and I know many will disagree with me, but I say the modular sets, Emporium, Fire Brigade, and ESPECIALLY the TOWER BRIDGE will be dud for resells. They will be dud not because of lack of interest but simply from OVER SUPPLY. If you notice every time they go on sale even from the slightest to a nice 30-40% sale, they're quickly SOLD OUT EVERYWHERE. I honestly don't believe its lego fans buying it up but rather its mostly investor with deep pockets buying a large percentage of them. Sorry to burst some people's bubble, but I see a bubble formed already so I'm going to check in every year to see when its burst for curiosity. With so many modular sets out now and more coming, at some point AFOLs will be forced to choose a finite number of buildings in their budget. Right now its still "affordable" for many to own all modulars that've been produced but reality kicks in sooner or later that they must choose between which sets to own and which to pass on. Good luck to everyone that is buying into the lego investing business. I'm going to stick to my stocks. Easy to liquidate in a down turn with the same amount of risk.

[SpaceViking]

I'm going to throw in a surprise and I know many will disagree with me, but I say the modular sets, Emporium, Fire Brigade, and ESPECIALLY the TOWER BRIDGE will be dud for resells. They will be dud not because of lack of interest but simply from OVER SUPPLY.

I tend to agree, esp w/ Fire Brigade. It is an extremely popular set, but the stretch of time when it wasn't selling out at $120 on amazon bodes poorly for future appreciation.

I've been contemplating Cafe Corner lately, and it seems to me that it hit two criteria for such high appreciation: the first run of a series, and it used many pieces that were being phased out and replaced by more modern molds. This has made it much more difficult to 'bricklink' and those pieces have now appreciated substantially due to low supply. I may be mistaken, but this doesn't seem to be the case with the current modular sets.

Tower Bridge, on the other hand, fits more with the sculpture line than the modulars. There may be much higher supply in the future than, say, the Statue of Liberty or Taj Mahal. But I find it hard to see it languishing like Atlantis/PoP sets once it goes EOL.