brickarmor wrote:I just wanted to bump this thread back to life, now that several months have passed since the spate of holiday discontinuations. IF and EN, I'm looking at you!! I, of course, totally missed out on everything, but I wanted to see if anyone cared to share a "revised" 2012 outlook. Harry Potter and PotC going to be trounced by LotR??? Marvel Superheroes dampen Ninjago??? Death Star and MMV certified immortal??? Nobody knows, but it's a lot of fun to talk about.
I only have speculation to offer, and I don't invest in Lego to resell. But here goes.
PotC is discontinued. I bought them all, and I would be shocked to see a second wave happen. The most recent set, Black Pearl launched in November and has been on clearance or heavily discounted everywhere since about January... as with all the other PotC sets. For that theme, I can't hazard to guess on re-selling performance. Some of the figs fetch quite a nice price on eBay etc, but I don't know about entire sets, relative to other themes/sets to resell.
It seems to me that Ninjago is doing great. I wouldn't say it'll be dampened by superheroes. I can see little boys (core Lego market) buying all of them.
I don't know about Death Star, but for MMV, I'm going to hazard a guess that will be around for a while longer, as will the Kingdoms Joust. I think this because of the LOTR theme. Lego has signed a contract saying they won't put out any competing themes against LOTR, which basically means no castle themes. But that excludes any existing sets. So I think they will continue to sell MMV and Joust in the Lego stores to make some extra coin off the LOTR train. Again, I could be wrong, but that's what I would do in their shoes. MMV in particular is a fantastic set - I only just this week started dismantling it after having it displayed for 1 1/2 years. It's as good as everyone says. I wouldn't be surprised if it performed well after discontinuation, even having been on shelves for such a long time.
I'm somewhat interested in Monster Fighters. However, I don't think it would do that well on the aftermarket. That theme seems to be all about the minifigs, and the constructs don't seem too great (cars with big hammers and guns). I kind of think of that theme like Atlantis, some cool stuff but I might not bring myself to buy much of it. I don't see it having long-term appeal beyond some of the minifigs (mainly the monsters). I think that might get a second wave, but I can't imagine it "going Ninjago" and running for a number of waves and strong popularity / TV show, etc.
All just my opinions. Again, I don't do reselling, but I sometimes fantasize about it. Cash is tight these days, and I'm lucky just to get my baseline Lego needs fulfilled.
