How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

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Zithy
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How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by Zithy » Mon Jun 28, 2010 1:37 am

Ebay sales for sealed 10179's have reached $800 as of 6/27. Which do you think is the closest to what will happen?

1) Price is pretty much capped now. Set will stay around $800 range

2) Set will hit 1K, likely around Xmas, then drop back to $800 range

3) At a close future time(say next year), this will be a 1K set, never to be found under 1K

4) You see this being THE set to have of all time, going to $1500

Or if you would rather answer it differently, if you have a sealed set you were planning on selling, when would you sell it?

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by Ice » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:37 am

I never expected this set to go up this high. Sold a sealed one a few weeks ago for $350 Canadian.

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by MisterFubar » Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:47 am

I see sealed sets hitting as high as 1200, and then settling at around 1000 in a few years.

I'm really wishing I would have bought a few more when I got mine for $375 shipped.

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by legitimatealex » Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:39 pm

I predict it caps at 800. At some point it becomes cheaper to find those pieces somewhere else and build it yourself.
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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by vynsane » Mon Jun 28, 2010 8:27 pm

I guess it depends on how much it smokes...
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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by Zithy » Mon Jun 28, 2010 9:44 pm

vynsane wrote:I guess it depends on how much it smokes...

I believe you forgot to add "waka waka waka"


:)

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by mrfootball » Thu Sep 02, 2010 1:05 am

Sealed sets have risen a bit more over the past month and are going for nearly $900 now.

IMO, this set is one of the 'must have' all-time Lego sets and will eclipse the $1000 mark and then settle back around that number with used sets going for $500-700

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by brickbybrick » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:41 pm

Not to derail this thread, but obv the UCS 10188 Death Star is IMO a better value. It has 4X the minifigs and has serious playability. Where does everybody see this set going?

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by mrfootball » Tue Sep 28, 2010 6:38 pm

New 10179 UCS Falcons are now selling at around $1000 on average over on Ebay with used sets going for around $600-$700.

Retailers on Google Shopping are asking from $1300-$1900 for sealed sets.

I'm revising my earlier post, this puppy will probably go to $1500 on Ebay in the next couple months.

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by slacker » Wed Sep 29, 2010 6:51 am

It will go to $1.5k right before xmas and then drop back down. I haven't built mine yet. I just don't have the time right now.

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by slimninj4 » Mon Dec 06, 2010 1:58 pm

I not sure if will sell when it hits around 1500 or wait for my son to get older. I will let him choose. I got mine about 375 and had a chance to get two of them. Carrying one though the mall was crazy and so many people staring. lol

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by natelite » Fri Dec 24, 2010 5:01 am

well, i would cash in around now seeing how there's another millennium falcon in the works for 2011. when that hits, all mf will drop since that model is so much more affordable. (the current alternative to the ucs mf is the 4504, which is still around $500. watch this set plummet to around $200-$250 when the new mf hits).

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by mrfootball » Fri Dec 24, 2010 8:21 am

I think the new model will be comparable to the 4504. It won't affect
The price of the UCS falcon as much as it will the 4504.

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by sadowsk1 » Fri Dec 24, 2010 8:38 am

mrfootball wrote:I think the new model will be comparable to the 4504. It won't affect
The price of the UCS falcon as much as it will the 4504.
I agree with this assessment. The UCS Falcon has no equal in my world.

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by Brickmythic » Sat Dec 25, 2010 11:00 am

I agree with Natelite.
Lets be clear; the UCS MF did not sell well for a reason.

1. Most of us bought it heavily discounted.
2. Those of us with children were quite dissapointed with lack of "play features" in UCS Falcon.
3. Its an amazing Lego set, a marvel to behold. In fact the largest Star Wars themed set to date. With that said however, while on display it really doesn't fit in with other Classic iconic Lego Star Wars ships you'd also have on display. (Vader's TIE,regular TIE, and 6202 X-wing to be precise)
Thats if you have the room ...AHEM.. ie an extra Table to display it. UCS Falcon is overkill, too BIG.I've bagged ours shortly after building too only rebuild 4504 for the display case/shelf simply because it fits.
4. 4504 MF has long term play value for children. (or imaginitive AFOL's!)
5.While somewhat flimsy and breakable 4504 could at least be carried from room to room without needing a forklift or moving furniture.

I personally love the UCS Falcon, being an AFOL. it was a great build! I've also sold several for 1k each.
But we have to remember Lego sets are targeted as a children's toy. Something the UCS Falcon failed to be.

The 2011 Falcon will have new and improved features which will make it a vast improvement from 4504.
Not too mention the only set which includes a Vader minifig in 2011. It's the first OT Lego set to include ALL the major OT characters. Luke, Leia, Han Solo, Obi Wan, Chewie, and Vader. (UCS Deathstar includes all major characters but costs $400-$450 after tax)

I'd go as far to say the 2011 Falcon will not only be the best Falcon to ever be released, but quite possibly one of the best Star Wars lego sets to ever be produced. 8-) 8-)

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by natelite » Thu Dec 30, 2010 9:04 pm

i think everyone is missing the point i am making. recall the 5 forces theory in economics or marketing or whatever. every item has a substitute. assume you are the average shopper looking for a mf. which would you get? a ucs mf, 4504 or the new mf? everything is a balancing act. the ucs mf is $1k+, the 4504 is ~$500. the new mf is assumed to be $120-150. which would you buy? yes, i get that ucs and 4504 are discontinued and therefore rare. but this is lego. if the new mf is similar in design and build as 4504, you can bet that the average lego fan will start collecting this new mf instead of 4504. watch the price plummet.

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by vynsane » Sun Jan 02, 2011 5:22 pm

I agree with you, natelite, for the most part. The faction you are not taking into account are Star Wars collectors - not SW LEGO collectors, but over-arching SW collectors. Especially those who buy the highest of the high-end SW collectibles (like prop replicas, large-scale statues, etc). Having been on the fringes of the SW collecting community in the past, I've seen how much dough these people drop on expensive SW stuff, seemingly solely because it's the expensive stuff. They're going to be more interested in the UCSMF than the new edition, so it will probably keep the value of the UCSMF up, relative to the likely price-drop on other editions.

That said, I wholeheartedly agree that the new MF will reduce the aftermarket value of 4504 - like you said, it's simple economics: They're too similar for it not to be affected, especially with the additional minifigures.
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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by Luciant » Wed Jan 26, 2011 11:02 pm

Here is how I see it through the Economics spectrum:

The overall "MF" price for any and all sets will initially drop because of the alternative supply of a MF. The general population will opt to buy the version in retail stores, rather than to pay a premium for an older discontinued set. (Regular Moms and Dads don't want to drop $500 on a toy when they can drop $100). With the new MF out, the "demand" for MF's in the secondary market will drop..

Current holders of UCS MF will have an OMG moment and try to ditch their inventories while the prices are still relatively high, further over-supplying the market and dropping the price even more. Overall this will 'hold' MF prices to roughly the averages they are at now. I'm thinking the UCS MF will stay/increase slightly in price over time due to the SW collectors, and AFOL Collectors who HAVE to have it to complete their sets. Overall this will mean less demand, because there are fewer of us addict/collectors who strive for completion... this will lead the holders to decide: 1) It's not worth holding such an expensive set any longer becaues it's not jumping in price like it did before or 2) It's price isn't moving as much anymore, so they decide to dig in and wait for a few years to hopefully spike the value.

Basically, if your wanting one, the best time will be right after the release of the new MF, but not TOO soon....
I have mixed feelings about new releases: I can't wait to see and get the new sets... but I can't figure out where I'm gonna put them or store them.

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by mrfootball » Sat Jan 29, 2011 7:06 pm

Reports of the new, upcoming MF revealed at the UK Toy fair were somewhat underwhelming. I doubt you'll ever see another MF as good as the UCS - or else it's going to be a looooong wait. That tells me the UCS is in a class by itself and as the best of the best...will continue to rise as people want the best.

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Re: How high will the UCS MF 10179 get?

Post by sadowsk1 » Sun Jan 30, 2011 7:39 pm

I think the UCS will keep going up. The fact that they are rereleasing the regular Millenium Falcon in my opinion won't affect it. It seems like the previous two are still available at nearly MSRP from when they were first released if you are willing to buy them out of package. With that in mind the upcoming set MSRP is 149.99 which is greater than the MSRP of the previous two. I don't think that releasing a new set will bring the value of the UCS down if it hasn't happened already.

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